> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# SimpleFunctions Index methodology

> How the SimpleFunctions Index summarizes prediction-market state across macro, geopolitical, fiscal, monetary, and tail-risk themes.

The SimpleFunctions Index (SimpleFunctions Index) is a composite that summarizes the prediction-market state of the world: macro, geopolitical, fiscal, monetary, and tail-risk indicators rolled into a single number.

## Inputs

* Top liquid markets across selected themes (`fed_monetary`, `tariff_trade`, `us_fiscal`, `iran_crisis`, `ukraine_russia`, `china_taiwan`, `oil_energy`).
* Per-market implied probability, weighted by liquidity and recency.
* Cross-venue agreement bonus.

## Compute cadence

Updated every 5 minutes by the `scan-prices` and indicator pipeline. Persisted to `sf_index_history` with timestamp.

## Surfaces

* **CLI**: `sf index --json`, `sf index history --json`
* **API**: `GET /api/public/index`, `GET /api/public/index/history`
* **MCP**: surfaced inside `get_world_state`
* **Web**: hero on `simplefunctions.dev` and `prediction-market-index` landing.

## Versioning

The methodology has shipped two versions:

* **v1** — initial composite, deprecated.
* **v2** — current methodology served at `/api/public/index` and `/api/public/index/history`.

## Next steps

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="How it works" href="/guides/how-it-works">
    The end-to-end SimpleFunctions compute loop.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Snapshots" href="/concepts/snapshots">
    Historical index data is published as `SimpleFunctions/sf-index-history` on HuggingFace.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>