> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Complete Reference
> Full SimpleFunctions one-page docs reference preserved from the migration — archive only, prefer focused pages.
This page is an archive. Prefer focused current pages from the navigation, especially [Quickstart](/quickstart), [CLI command reference](/cli/command-reference), [REST API](/api-reference/overview), and [MCP server](/cli/mcp-server).
This is an archived migration page. It is not the canonical reference for new integrations, tool counts, auth policy, or endpoint shapes. Use the focused pages in the CLI, HTTP API, data, and workflow sections for current contracts.
## Overview
SimpleFunctions is prediction market data, indicators, and autonomous trading infrastructure. Structured, decision-ready data from Kalshi, Polymarket, X/Twitter, and traditional markets — monitored 24/7. CLI first, REST/API second, MCP adapter last, plus an interactive agent with cognitive guardrails.
***
Quick Start
### 0. No install needed — try it now
```bash theme={null}
curl https://simplefunctions.dev/api # live data in your terminal
curl https://simplefunctions.dev/api/changes # recent market changes
curl https://simplefunctions.dev/api/contracts/tools # strict SDK/Agent manifest
curl https://simplefunctions.dev/api/tools # broad compatibility inventory
```
### 1. Install the CLI
```bash theme={null}
npm install -g @spfunctions/cli
sf scan "gold" # search Kalshi + Polymarket (no auth)
sf query "iran oil" # LLM-enhanced search — markets + X + answer
sf watch "gold" # server-side change detection feed
sf agent # interactive agent (all tools + skills)
```
Public market reads work without an API key. User-owned theses, portfolio state, intents, watchlists, alerts, webhooks, keys, and trading surfaces require auth.
### 2. Explore — ask questions (no thesis needed)
```bash theme={null}
sf agent # opens in explorer mode — all tools, no setup
```
Ask anything: "what's happening with Iran?", "show me gold contracts", "any new markets today?". The agent has full access to scan, query, watch, and explore — no thesis required. When you form a view, say it: "I think oil stays above \$100" — the agent creates a thesis automatically.
### 3. Create a thesis (optional — makes context richer)
```bash theme={null}
sf setup # API key + optional Kalshi/Polymarket credentials (2 min)
sf thesis create 'US-Iran war will not end quickly. Oil stays above $100 through Q2 2026.'
```
Pass a **testable claim** — a statement that can be true or false at a future date. Use single quotes (not double) so `$100` isn't swallowed by your shell. Takes \~60s; system builds a causal tree, scans Kalshi + Polymarket for related contracts, identifies edges, and starts 24/7 monitoring.
### 4. Focused context
```bash theme={null}
sf thesis context # thesis-specific: causal tree, edges, evaluation, track record
sf edges # top mispriced contracts across all theses
sf dashboard # interactive Bloomberg-style terminal
```
That's it. The system runs 24/7. See the [Agent Guide](/reference/agent-guide) for full integration reference.
***
How It Works
### Thesis → Causal Tree
Your plain-text thesis is decomposed into a tree of verifiable assumptions. Each node has a probability (0-1) and importance weight. The overall confidence is the weighted product.
```
Thesis: "Oil stays above $100 for 6 months"
├── n1: OPEC maintains production cuts (0.70, weight 0.30)
│ ├── n1.1: Saudi compliance remains high (0.80)
│ └── n1.2: Russia doesn't break quota (0.60)
├── n2: Demand stays strong (0.65, weight 0.25)
├── n3: Geopolitical risk premium persists (0.75, weight 0.25)
└── n4: No US SPR release (0.80, weight 0.20)
Confidence: 72%
```
### Edge Detection
The system maps causal nodes to prediction market contracts and compares:
* **Market price**: what Kalshi/Polymarket traders think (e.g. 34 cents)
* **Thesis price**: what your causal model implies (e.g. 55 cents)
* **Edge**: the difference (21 cents)
* **Executable edge**: edge minus half the spread (real edge after crossing)
### 24/7 Monitoring
Every 15 minutes, the heartbeat engine:
1. Scans news (3 queries including one adversarial — never filters out contradictory evidence)
2. Refreshes prices from Kalshi API + Polymarket CLOB
3. Enriches orderbooks (bid/ask depth for edges > 5 cents)
4. Evaluates signals against causal tree (checks kill conditions first)
5. Computes track record (hit rate: % of edges that moved toward thesis)
6. Discovers new edges (daily) and augments the causal tree with new nodes (weekly)
***
Integration Options
### MCP Server
One-line setup for Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, or Roo Code:
```bash theme={null}
claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
```
See the current [MCP tools reference](/reference/mcp-tools) and [Tool Manifest](/api-reference/tools) for the live tool catalog. Tool counts change as the surface evolves.
### CLI
Every command supports `--json`. Key commands support `--share` for shareable URLs.
**Explore (no auth):**
| Command | What it does |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------- |
| `sf scan "gold"` | Search Kalshi + Polymarket |
| `sf scan "btc" --expires-before 24h --price-min 3 --price-max 9` | Scan with server-side filters (expiry / price / volume) |
| `sf overround "senate majority leader"` | Sum YES asks across multi-leg event; flag arb |
| `sf newmarkets --hours 24` | Newly listed markets (catch fresh contracts before pro MM) |
| `sf query "iran oil"` | LLM-enhanced search (markets + X + answer) |
| `sf watch "gold"` | Price change detection feed |
| `sf watch "gold" orderbook` | Live bid/ask/spread/depth tracking |
| `sf watch "gold" flow` | Momentum detection, volume spikes |
| `sf watch "gold" cross-venue` | Kalshi vs Polymarket spread tracking |
| `sf agent` | Interactive agent (all tools + skills, explorer mode) |
| `sf context` | Global market snapshot |
| `sf markets` | Traditional markets (SPY, VIX, GLD, TLT, USO) |
| `sf explore` | Browse public theses |
| `sf status` | Health check: API, auth, Kalshi, Polymarket, theses |
| `sf dashboard` | Interactive Bloomberg-style terminal |
**Thesis + analysis:**
| Command | What it does |
| ------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------- |
| `sf thesis create "thesis"` | Create thesis with causal tree + edges |
| `sf thesis context ` | Thesis-specific snapshot |
| `sf edges` | Top mispriced contracts across all theses |
| `sf whatif --set "n1=0.1"` | Scenario analysis (zero LLM cost) |
| `sf thesis signal "text"` | Inject observation |
| `sf thesis evaluate ` | Force deep evaluation |
| `sf feed` | Evaluation history |
| `sf contagion` | Markets that should have moved but didn't |
| `sf cross-venue` | Kalshi vs Polymarket price comparison |
| `sf calibration` | Brier scores + calibration metrics |
| `sf regime [ticker]` | Market regime analysis (--history) |
**Knowledge + community:**
| Command | What it does |
| -------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- |
| `sf concepts [slug]` | Indicator definitions: IY, CRI, LAS, EE, OR... |
| `sf technicals [slug]` | Technical analysis methodology |
| `sf opinions [slug]` | Published market commentary |
| `sf blog [slug]` | Blog articles + research notes |
| `sf forum channels` | Forum channels + subscription state |
| `sf forum inbox` | Unread messages |
| `sf forum post "msg"` | Post to a channel |
| `sf watchlist` | Saved markets (--add/--remove) |
| `sf calendar` | Structured event calendar |
| `sf yield-curve [event]` | Implied yield curves |
**Intents + Execution:**
| Command | What it does |
| -------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- |
| `sf intent buy --price ` | Create buy intent with trigger |
| `sf intent sell --trigger below:40` | Sell intent with price trigger |
| `sf intent list` | Active intents (`--all` for history) |
| `sf intent status ` | Detailed status with fills |
| `sf intent cancel ` | Cancel an intent |
| `sf runtime start [--daemon] [--smart]` | Start execution daemon (--smart for LLM intelligence) |
| `sf runtime stop` | Stop daemon |
| `sf runtime status` | Runtime state + active intents |
**Portfolio + trading:**
| Command | What it does |
| ---------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------- |
| `sf positions` | Kalshi + Polymarket positions with P\&L |
| `sf balance` | Account balance |
| `sf orders` | Current resting orders |
| `sf fills` | Recent trade fills |
| `sf settlements` | Settled contracts with P\&L |
| `sf performance` | P\&L over time with sparklines |
| `sf buy --price ` | Buy contracts (direct, no intent) |
| `sf sell --price ` | Sell contracts (direct, no intent) |
| `sf cancel [orderId]` | Cancel orders (`--all` for all) |
**X / Twitter:**
| Command | What it does |
| ------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------- |
| `sf x "iran oil"` | Search X discussions — posts, sentiment, themes |
| `sf x-volume "tariffs"` | Discussion volume trend with histogram |
| `sf x-news "tariffs"` | X news stories with ticker mentions |
| `sf x-account @federalreserve` | Recent posts from a specific account |
**Flags:** `--json` on all commands · `--share` on scan, query, context, edges, markets, explore
Full reference in the [Agent Guide](/reference/agent-guide#cli-commands-42).
Agent Contract
The CLI is designed for agent consumption. Behaviors agents can rely on:
| Behavior | Detail |
| ---------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **Structured errors** | When piped (non-TTY), errors emit JSON on stderr: `{{"error": "...", "code": "..."}}` |
| **Exit codes** | `0` success, `127` unknown command |
| **NO\_COLOR** | Set `NO_COLOR=1` to strip all ANSI escape codes |
| **FORCE\_COLOR** | Set `FORCE_COLOR=1` to force ANSI even when piped |
| **SF\_AUTO\_CONFIRM** | Set `SF_AUTO_CONFIRM=1` to skip interactive confirmations (required for non-TTY order execution) |
| **--json** | Every command supports `--json` for structured output |
| **LLM fallback** | Unrecognized commands get LLM-powered suggestions (e.g., `sf thesis list` → suggests `sf list`) |
| **--quiet** | Suppress non-essential output (progress, banners) |
| **sf describe --all --json** | Machine-readable catalog of every tool — args, options, auth, side effects |
Agent Harness
Tools for testing, backtesting, and constraining agent behavior.
| Command | What it does |
| ------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------- |
| `sf agent --record-trace /tmp/trace.ndjson` | Record every tool call + LLM message to NDJSON file |
| `sf agent --replay-trace /tmp/trace.ndjson` | Replay: tool calls return recorded output (deterministic) |
| `sf agent --budget-usd 5` | Hard ceiling on total spend (LLM + side effects) |
| `sf agent --allow read,query` | Whitelist: only these tool categories allowed |
| `sf agent --deny order,position.write` | Blacklist: these tools blocked |
| `sf agent --headless` | Tool-only NDJSON mode for external LLM integration. |
Event Subscription
Long-lived structured event streams for reactive agents. Replaces polling.
| Command | What it does |
| -------------------------- | --------------------- |
| `sf subscribe list` | Active subscriptions |
| `sf subscribe cancel ` | Cancel a subscription |
**Event types:** market (price\_cross, volume\_spike, spread\_widen, regime\_flip), thesis (confidence\_drop, confidence\_rise, new\_signal), position (drawdown, fill, close), portfolio (drawdown, tick\_complete, halt), system (runtime.started, runtime.stopped).
Cloud Runtime
Run your agent runtime in the cloud. Always-on, no local laptop required. BYOK: your keys, encrypted client-side.
| Command | What it does |
| --------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- |
| `sf setup --cloud` | Configure cloud runtime: encrypt + upload your API keys |
| `sf runtime start --remote` | Start the remote runtime when configured |
| `sf runtime stop --remote` | Stop cloud container (scale to zero) |
| `sf --remote agent` | Run agent command via cloud runtime |
**Key encryption:** Your API keys are encrypted client-side (Argon2id key derivation) before upload. SimpleFunctions never sees plaintext credentials.
### REST API
**No auth needed:**
| Endpoint | What it does |
| --------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `GET /api/agent/world` | Real-time world model for agents (\~800 tokens markdown). Edges, movers, anchors, divergences. |
| `GET /api/agent/world/delta?since=1h` | Incremental world state update — only what changed (\~30-50 tokens). |
| `GET /api/agent/inspect/:ticker` | Complete ticker dossier: price, regime, indicators, suggestion, contagion, 7d trend. |
| `GET /api/public/query?q=...` | LLM-enhanced search (Kalshi + Polymarket + X + traditional) |
| `GET /api/public/search?q=...` | Raw search index + market snippets |
| `GET /api/public/scan?q=...` | Cross-venue market search with relevance ranking |
| `GET /api/public/topic/:slug` | Topic-focused market surface with grouped context |
| `GET /api/public/answer/:slug` | Full natural-language answer object |
| `GET /api/public/screen?sort=iy&limit=10` | Indicator screener: filter 50K+ markets by IY, EE, OR, LAS, CRI, RV, VR, IAR, Adj IY, Residual VR, τ |
| `POST /api/public/discuss` | Post market discussion/feedback |
| `GET /api/public/ideas` | Cached daily trade ideas: S\&T-style pitches with conviction + catalyst. `?q=topic` runs slower on-demand LLM synthesis and is topic-cached. |
| `GET /api/public/contagion?window=6h` | Cross-market contagion: which connected markets should move but haven't? |
| `GET /api/public/query-gov?q=...` | Legislative intelligence: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports + prediction market cross-reference |
| `GET /api/public/query-econ?q=...` | Official economic data search: FRED-backed time series, latest values, changes, tags. `includeMarkets=true` adds related prediction markets. |
| `GET /api/x/search?q=...` | Search X discussions — posts, sentiment, themes |
| `GET /api/x/volume?q=...` | Discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity |
| `GET /api/public/fred?series=...` | Raw FRED anchor observations |
| `GET /api/public/databento` | Databento-backed traditional market anchors (SPY, VIX, GLD...) |
| `GET /api/public/legislation` | Bills listing with market cross-reference. `?q=`, `?hasMarket=true` |
| `GET /api/public/legislation/:billId` | Bill detail: status, actions, CRS summary, sponsors + linked markets + state bills |
| `GET /api/public/congress/members` | Current members of Congress. `?state=`, `?party=`, `?chamber=` |
| `GET /api/public/congress/member/:id` | Member detail: bio, sponsored bills, election markets |
| `GET /api/public/index` | SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2: disagreement, geo\_risk, breadth, activity |
| `GET /api/public/index/history?days=7` | Historical index data (1-30 days) |
| `GET /api/public/newmarkets` | Recently listed markets across venues |
| `GET /api/public/yield-curves` | Calendar yield curves — term structure across event families |
| `GET /api/public/calibration` | Brier score calibration metrics across 60K+ resolved markets |
| `GET /api/public/highlights` | Today's market headlines and highlights |
| `GET /api/public/market/:ticker` | Single market detail: price, spread, volume, orderbook (`?depth=true`) |
| `GET /api/public/market/:ticker/candles?timeframe=1m&limit=500` | OHLCV/K-line candles used by `market.candles` and SDK screening |
| `GET /api/public/regime/scan` | Markets by adverse selection regime (maker/taker/neutral) |
| `GET /api/public/diff?tickers=X,Y&window=24h` | Market derivatives: price/volume/spread/depth deltas + divergence signals |
| `GET /api/public/briefing?topic=iran` | Daily topic briefing: what changed, why it matters, outlook |
| `GET /api/changes?since=&q=&type=` | Server-side market change detection (every 15 min) |
| `GET /api/contracts/tools` | Strict SDK/Agent contract manifest |
| `GET /api/tools` | Broad hosted compatibility inventory |
| `GET /api/public/trad-markets` | Traditional market snapshot (SPY, VIX, GLD, TLT, USO via Databento) |
| `GET /api/public/theses` | List public theses |
| `GET /api/public/thesis/:slug` | Public thesis detail with causal tree + edges |
| `GET /api/public/opinions` | Opinion articles (`/:slug` for detail) |
| `GET /api/public/technicals` | Technical analysis (`/:slug` for detail) |
| `GET /api/public/glossary` | Glossary entries (`/:slug` for detail) |
| `GET /api/public/skills` | Agent cognitive skills and workflows |
| `POST /api/monitor-the-situation/enrich` | Paste text + topics → prediction market divergence analysis. No auth needed. |
**Auth required (`Authorization: Bearer sf_live_xxx`):**
| Endpoint | What it does |
| --------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `POST /api/monitor-the-situation` | Universal web intelligence: scrape any URL (Firecrawl), cross-reference with markets. **Requires auth.** |
| `GET /api/edges` | Aggregated edges across all theses (auth adds private theses) |
**X / Twitter (no auth):**
| Endpoint | What it does |
| --------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------- |
| `GET /api/x/search?q=...` | Search X discussions — posts, sentiment, themes |
| `GET /api/x/volume?q=...` | Discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity |
| `GET /api/x/news?q=...` | X news stories — headlines, summaries |
| `GET /api/x/account?username=...` | Recent posts from a specific account |
**Auth required** (`Authorization: Bearer sf_live_xxx`):
| Endpoint | What it does |
| --------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `POST /api/thesis/create[?sync=true]` | Create thesis (sync waits for formation) |
| `GET /api/thesis/:id/context` | Thesis-specific snapshot |
| `GET /api/thesis/:id/changes?since=ISO` | Lightweight delta check (\~50 bytes) |
| `POST /api/thesis/:id/signal` | Inject signal |
| `POST /api/thesis/:id/evaluate` | Force evaluation (up to 2 min) |
| `POST /api/thesis/:id/augment` | Tree augmentation (`?dryRun=true` to preview) |
| `POST /api/thesis/:id/strategies` | Create trading strategy |
| `GET /api/thesis/:id/strategies` | List strategies |
| `POST /api/intents` | Create execution intent with trigger conditions |
| `GET /api/intents` | List intents (`?active=true` for active only) |
| `DELETE /api/intents/:id` | Cancel an intent |
| `GET /api/thesis/:id/evaluations` | Daily-aggregated evaluation history (confidence trajectory) |
| `POST /api/thesis/:id/nodes` | Direct causal tree node mutation (zero LLM cost) |
| `GET /api/feed?hours=24` | Evaluation history |
| `POST /api/skill` | Create a custom skill |
| `GET /api/skill` | List user skills + built-in skills |
| `PUT /api/skill/:id` | Update a skill |
| `DELETE /api/skill/:id` | Delete a skill |
| `POST /api/skill/:id/publish` | Publish skill (set slug) |
| `POST /api/skill/:id/fork` | Fork a public skill into your collection |
| `POST /api/thesis/:id/fork` | Fork a public thesis (accepts ID or slug, copies thesis + causal tree) |
Full endpoint reference in the [Agent Guide](/reference/agent-guide#rest-api-endpoints).
Real-Time Data API
Sub-second WebSocket and REST data feed at `data.simplefunctions.dev/v1/` — a separate
surface from the agent / public APIs above. Built for trading agents, dashboards, quants,
and risk engines that need tick-level state across Kalshi and Polymarket.
**REST (no auth required at the edge — rate-limited):**
| Endpoint | What it does | Cache-Control |
| ------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------- |
| `GET /v1/markets` | All tracked markets with precomputed heat score | `public, max-age=3, swr=10` |
| `GET /v1/markets/featured?n=20` | Top-N by heat — what is moving right now | `public, max-age=3, swr=10` |
| `GET /v1/markets/{ticker}` | Single market snapshot with full metadata | `public, max-age=2, swr=5` |
| `GET /v1/orderbook/{ticker}` | Live depth — bids, asks, timestamp | `public, max-age=1` |
| `GET /v1/candles/{ticker}?tf=1h&limit=500` | OHLC candles for any timeframe | `public, max-age=15` (1d) / `5` (others) |
| `GET /v1/trades/{ticker}?limit=50` | Recent trade prints, newest first | `public, max-age=1` |
| `GET /v1/heartbeat` | System status — markets tracked, ws clients, uptime | `public, max-age=10` |
**WebSocket** (`wss://app.simplefunctions.dev/ws`, JSON envelopes):
| Topic | Frame shape | Cadence |
| ---------------------- | -------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------- |
| `ticker:{ticker}` | `{type, ticker, last, bid, ask, volume24h, venue}` | On change |
| `orderbook:{ticker}` | `{type, ticker, bids, asks, ts}` | Throttled 1 Hz |
| `trade:{ticker}` | `{type, ticker, price, size, side, ts}` | On every print |
| `candle:{ticker}:{tf}` | `{type, ticker, timeframe, candle}` | On bar update |
| `featured` | `{type, markets, generated_at}` | 60 s tick + rank-change |
**Heat score (0-100 per market):** `0.40 × log-vol + 0.35 × spread-tightness + 0.15 × close-to-coin-flip + 0.10 × recent-volatility`. Use to filter the long tail — only subscribe to markets above a heat threshold.
```bash theme={null}
curl https://data.simplefunctions.dev/v1/heartbeat
curl https://data.simplefunctions.dev/v1/markets/featured?n=20
```
```js theme={null}
const ws = new WebSocket('wss://app.simplefunctions.dev/ws')
ws.addEventListener('open', () => ws.send(JSON.stringify({
action: 'subscribe',
topics: ['featured', 'ticker:KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-CUT100'],
})))
ws.addEventListener('message', e => console.log(JSON.parse(e.data)))
```
Full integration page: [Real-Time Data API](/reference/realtime-data). Agent-specific patterns: [Build Agents](/guides/agents).
### Agent Skills
Cognitive guardrails for prediction market agents. Skills are prompts that make agents disciplined.
| Skill | Trigger | What it does |
| ---------- | ------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Discipline | `/discipline` | Full position review: entry hypothesis, falsification, from-zero test |
| Pre-check | `/precheck` | Pre-trade adversarial check — argue against the trade first |
| Morning | `/morning` | Structured daily briefing: kill conditions, positions, action items |
Skills are markdown files. Create your own in `~/.sf/skills/`. See the [Agent Guide](/reference/agent-guide) for agent-facing usage patterns.
### Agent Runtime
Multi-daemon architecture. Your agent orchestrates background daemons that monitor, reason, and execute autonomously. Smart mode (`--smart`) adds LLM intelligence: soft condition gating, periodic scans, wake conditions.
```bash theme={null}
sf runtime start --smart --daemon # execution daemon with LLM intelligence
sf telegram --daemon # push notifications + mobile agent
sf agent # interactive agent (reads daemon alerts)
```
See the [Agent Runtime guide](/guides/agent-runtime) for architecture, config, and operational patterns.
### Telegram Bot
```bash theme={null}
sf telegram --token YOUR_BOTFATHER_TOKEN --daemon
```
Runs locally. Slash commands + natural language. Auto-pushes confidence alerts.
### Webhook
Add `webhookUrl` when creating a thesis. The engine POSTs on confidence changes >= 5%.
***
Authentication
Get an API key from the [Dashboard](https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys).
```bash theme={null}
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer sf_live_xxx" https://simplefunctions.dev/api/thesis
```
For CLI: `sf setup` stores the key in `~/.config/simplefunctions/config.json`. Config priority: env vars > config file > defaults.
***
Key Concepts
### Signals
Events that feed into evaluations. Five types:
| Type | Source | Description |
| ---------------- | ------------------- | ------------------------------- |
| `news` | Heartbeat or manual | News articles, data releases |
| `price_move` | Heartbeat | Market price change >= 3 cents |
| `user_note` | Manual | Your analysis or observations |
| `external` | Manual | Signals from other systems |
| `upcoming_event` | Heartbeat | Kalshi milestone matching edges |
### Edge Types
The system classifies each edge by WHY the mispricing exists:
* **consensus\_gap** — market and thesis disagree on fundamental probability
* **attention\_gap** — market hasn't reacted to recent information yet
* **timing\_gap** — market prices short-term risk, thesis prices long-term outcome
* **risk\_premium** — market embeds fear/greed premium that thesis doesn't
### Track Record
Feedback loop that computes how well past edges predicted market movement:
* **Hit rate**: % of edges where market moved toward the thesis-implied price
* **Average movement**: mean price change in cents since edge detection
* Track record is injected into evaluation prompts so the system learns from its accuracy
### Tree Augmentation
The causal tree evolves over time:
1. Each evaluation can suggest new causal factors (`suggestedNodes`)
2. Weekly (Monday 6 UTC), the augment agent reviews suggestions
3. LLM decides which to accept (must be genuinely new, not duplicates)
4. Accepted nodes are appended (never removed — append-only tree)
5. Importance weights are rebalanced among siblings
### Kill Conditions
Before every evaluation, the system asks: "Does any event fundamentally break a core assumption of this thesis?" If yes, it flags the threat prominently before any other analysis.
***
Pricing
Free during beta. Pay by token after 15M tokens consumed.
***
## Full Reference
See the focused CLI, HTTP API, data, and MCP adapter pages for current machine-readable contracts, response shapes, and integration rules. This archived page is not authoritative for live tool counts.