> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Core Concepts

> Causal trees, edges, signals, indicators, regimes, track record, and kill conditions — the conceptual vocabulary.

## Causal tree

A thesis is decomposed into verifiable assumptions. Each node has a probability and importance weight.

```text theme={null}
Thesis: "Oil stays above $100 for 6 months"
├── n1: OPEC maintains production cuts
├── n2: Demand stays strong
├── n3: Geopolitical risk premium persists
└── n4: No US SPR release
```

## Edge

An edge is the gap between market price and the model-implied price.

| Field           | Meaning                         |
| --------------- | ------------------------------- |
| Market price    | What traders currently imply    |
| Thesis price    | What your causal model implies  |
| Edge            | Difference in cents             |
| Executable edge | Edge minus transaction friction |

## Edge types

* `consensus_gap`: market and thesis disagree on fundamental probability
* `attention_gap`: market has not reacted to recent information
* `timing_gap`: market prices short-term risk while thesis prices long-term outcome
* `risk_premium`: market embeds fear/greed premium the thesis does not

## Signals

| Type             | Source              | Description                          |
| ---------------- | ------------------- | ------------------------------------ |
| `news`           | heartbeat or manual | News articles and data releases      |
| `price_move`     | heartbeat           | Market price change                  |
| `user_note`      | manual              | User analysis or observation         |
| `external`       | manual              | Signals from other systems           |
| `upcoming_event` | heartbeat           | Milestone or catalyst matching edges |

## Indicators

| Indicator   | Meaning                                   |
| ----------- | ----------------------------------------- |
| IY          | Implied yield                             |
| CRI         | Cliff risk index                          |
| EE          | Expected edge                             |
| LAS         | Liquidity-adjusted spread                 |
| OR          | Overround                                 |
| RV          | Realized volatility                       |
| VR          | Vol ratio                                 |
| IAR         | Information arrival rate                  |
| Adj IY      | Risk/friction-adjusted implied yield      |
| Residual VR | Volatility unexplained by known catalysts |

## Kill conditions

Before evaluation, the system asks whether recent events fundamentally break a core assumption. If yes, the threat is surfaced before any positive case.

## Track record

Track record measures whether past detected edges subsequently moved toward the model-implied price. It is used as calibration context for later evaluations.

## Deeper reading

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Indicators" href="/concepts/indicators">
    IY, CRI, OR, EE, LAS, τ, RV, CVR — every numeric input.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Regime detection" href="/concepts/regime">
    Microstructure labels that drive idea filtering.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Risk gates" href="/concepts/risk-gates">
    Pre-trade safety rails before every order.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Idea pipeline" href="/concepts/idea-pipeline">
    How daily trade ideas get generated and surfaced.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Provenance" href="/concepts/provenance">
    Trace ids for correlating async work across requests, monitors, alerts, and ticks.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Heartbeat" href="/concepts/heartbeat">
    Per-thesis monitoring loop — cadence, model tier, budget, closed-loop.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Snapshots" href="/concepts/snapshots">
    Public HuggingFace datasets and live snapshot endpoints.
  </Card>

  <Card title="SimpleFunctions Index methodology" href="/concepts/index-methodology">
    How the prediction-market index is constructed.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>