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A thesis is a living causal tree that evolves as signals arrive. SimpleFunctions wraps the lifecycle in a small set of verbs — each is a single CLI command and a single API endpoint.

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Lifecycle

create  →  context  →  signal  →  evaluate  →  augment  →  fork  →  publish  →  unpublish
VerbCLIAPI
Createsf create "thesis text"POST /api/thesis/create
Listsf thesis list --jsonGET /api/thesis
Getsf get <id> --jsonGET /api/thesis/{id}
Contextsf context <id> --jsonGET /api/thesis/{id}/context
Signalsf signal <id> "<content>"POST /api/thesis/{id}/signal
Evaluatesf evaluate <id>POST /api/thesis/{id}/evaluate
Augmentsf augment <id>POST /api/thesis/{id}/augment
Update nodes(via MCP update_nodes)POST /api/thesis/{id}/nodes
Fork(via MCP fork_thesis)POST /api/thesis/{id}/fork
Heartbeatsf heartbeat <id>GET / PATCH /api/thesis/{id}/heartbeat
What-ifsf whatif <id>POST /api/thesis/{id}/whatif
Publishsf publish <id> --slug XPOST /api/thesis/{id}/publish
Unpublishsf unpublish <id>POST /api/thesis/{id}/publish (DELETE shape)

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Walkthrough

1

Create

sf create "Fed cuts rates by July driven by jobs softening + CPI ≤ 2.5%"
The server runs an LLM classifier that rejects shell-escape garbage and obvious junk, expands the thesis into a causal tree (root claim → drivers → markers → markets), and assigns an initial confidence. Returns the new thesis id.
2

Pull context

sf context <id> --json
Returns the full causal tree, current confidence, related markets with edges, and any pending signals.
3

Inject a signal

sf signal <id> "Powell speech: 'job market is softening more than expected'"
Server appends the signal, schedules the next monitor cycle. Use inject_signal MCP tool to do the same from an LLM.
4

Evaluate

sf evaluate <id>
Triggers a deep evaluation (heavy model). Confidence delta and position recommendations come back in the response.
5

Augment

sf augment <id>
LLM proposes new tree nodes; you accept/reject. Append-only — old nodes never deleted.
6

Publish

sf publish <id> --slug fed-rate-cut-july
Makes the thesis public at simplefunctions.dev/thesis/<slug>. Slugs are normalized hard (/[^a-z0-9\s-]/g strip, max 60 chars).

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Heartbeat

Theses run on a heartbeat — the server periodically re-evaluates active theses and notifies you when confidence shifts or kill conditions trip. See Heartbeat.

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Next steps

Thesis API

Every endpoint with payload shapes.

CLI command reference

Every sf thesis command.

Trade intents

Turn a thesis edge into a tradeable intent.

Concepts

Causal trees, edges, kill conditions.