SimpleFunctions Index methodology

The SimpleFunctions Index (SimpleFunctions Index) is a composite that summarizes the prediction-market state of the world: macro, geopolitical, fiscal, monetary, and tail-risk indicators rolled into a single number.

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Inputs

• Top liquid markets across selected themes (fed_monetary, tariff_trade, us_fiscal, iran_crisis, ukraine_russia, china_taiwan, oil_energy).
• Per-market implied probability, weighted by liquidity and recency.
• Cross-venue agreement bonus.

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Compute cadence

Updated every 5 minutes by the scan-prices and indicator pipeline. Persisted to sf_index_history with timestamp.

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Surfaces

• CLI: sf index --json, sf index history --json
• API: GET /api/public/index, GET /api/public/index/history
• MCP: surfaced inside get_world_state
• Web: hero on simplefunctions.dev and prediction-market-index landing.

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Versioning

The methodology has shipped two versions:

• v1 — initial composite, deprecated.
• v2 — current methodology served at /api/public/index and /api/public/index/history.

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Next steps