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Causal tree

A thesis is decomposed into verifiable assumptions. Each node has a probability and importance weight. 
Thesis: "Oil stays above $100 for 6 months"
├── n1: OPEC maintains production cuts
├── n2: Demand stays strong
├── n3: Geopolitical risk premium persists
└── n4: No US SPR release

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Edge

An edge is the gap between market price and the model-implied price.
FieldMeaning
Market priceWhat traders currently imply
Thesis priceWhat your causal model implies
EdgeDifference in cents
Executable edgeEdge minus transaction friction

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Edge types

  • consensus_gap: market and thesis disagree on fundamental probability
  • attention_gap: market has not reacted to recent information
  • timing_gap: market prices short-term risk while thesis prices long-term outcome
  • risk_premium: market embeds fear/greed premium the thesis does not

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Signals

TypeSourceDescription
newsheartbeat or manualNews articles and data releases
price_moveheartbeatMarket price change
user_notemanualUser analysis or observation
externalmanualSignals from other systems
upcoming_eventheartbeatMilestone or catalyst matching edges

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Indicators

IndicatorMeaning
IYImplied yield
CRICliff risk index
EEExpected edge
LASLiquidity-adjusted spread
OROverround
RVRealized volatility
VRVol ratio
IARInformation arrival rate
Adj IYRisk/friction-adjusted implied yield
Residual VRVolatility unexplained by known catalysts

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Kill conditions

Before evaluation, the system asks whether recent events fundamentally break a core assumption. If yes, the threat is surfaced before any positive case.

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Track record

Track record measures whether past detected edges subsequently moved toward the model-implied price. It is used as calibration context for later evaluations.

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Deeper reading

Indicators

IY, CRI, OR, EE, LAS, τ, RV, CVR — every numeric input.

Regime detection

Microstructure labels that drive idea filtering.

Risk gates

Pre-trade safety rails before every order.

Idea pipeline

How daily trade ideas get generated and surfaced.

Provenance

Trace ids for correlating async work across requests, monitors, alerts, and ticks.

Heartbeat

Per-thesis monitoring loop — cadence, model tier, budget, closed-loop.

Snapshots

Public HuggingFace datasets and live snapshot endpoints.

SimpleFunctions Index methodology

How the prediction-market index is constructed.