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Causal tree

A thesis is decomposed into verifiable assumptions. Each node has a probability and importance weight.

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Edge

An edge is the gap between market price and the model-implied price.

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Edge types

  • consensus_gap: market and thesis disagree on fundamental probability
  • attention_gap: market has not reacted to recent information
  • timing_gap: market prices short-term risk while thesis prices long-term outcome
  • risk_premium: market embeds fear/greed premium the thesis does not

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Signals

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Indicators

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Kill conditions

Before evaluation, the system asks whether recent events fundamentally break a core assumption. If yes, the threat is surfaced before any positive case.

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Track record

Track record measures whether past detected edges subsequently moved toward the model-implied price. It is used as calibration context for later evaluations.

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Deeper reading

Indicators

IY, CRI, OR, EE, LAS, τ, RV, CVR — every numeric input.

Regime detection

Microstructure labels that drive idea filtering.

Risk gates

Pre-trade safety rails before every order.

Idea pipeline

How daily trade ideas get generated and surfaced.

Provenance

Trace ids for correlating async work across requests, monitors, alerts, and ticks.

Heartbeat

Per-thesis monitoring loop — cadence, model tier, budget, closed-loop.

Snapshots

Public HuggingFace datasets and live snapshot endpoints.

SimpleFunctions Index methodology

How the prediction-market index is constructed.