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Documentation Index

Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/llms.txt

Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

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Causal tree

A thesis is decomposed into verifiable assumptions. Each node has a probability and importance weight. 
Thesis: "Oil stays above $100 for 6 months"
├── n1: OPEC maintains production cuts
├── n2: Demand stays strong
├── n3: Geopolitical risk premium persists
└── n4: No US SPR release

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Edge

An edge is the gap between market price and the model-implied price.
FieldMeaning
Market priceWhat traders currently imply
Thesis priceWhat your causal model implies
EdgeDifference in cents
Executable edgeEdge minus transaction friction

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Edge types

  • consensus_gap: market and thesis disagree on fundamental probability
  • attention_gap: market has not reacted to recent information
  • timing_gap: market prices short-term risk while thesis prices long-term outcome
  • risk_premium: market embeds fear/greed premium the thesis does not

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Signals

TypeSourceDescription
newsheartbeat or manualNews articles and data releases
price_moveheartbeatMarket price change
user_notemanualUser analysis or observation
externalmanualSignals from other systems
upcoming_eventheartbeatMilestone or catalyst matching edges

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Indicators

IndicatorMeaning
IYImplied yield
CRICliff risk index
EEExpected edge
LASLiquidity-adjusted spread
OROverround
RVRealized volatility
VRVol ratio
IARInformation arrival rate
Adj IYRisk/friction-adjusted implied yield
Residual VRVolatility unexplained by known catalysts

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Kill conditions

Before evaluation, the system asks whether recent events fundamentally break a core assumption. If yes, the threat is surfaced before any positive case.

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Track record

Track record measures whether past detected edges subsequently moved toward the model-implied price. It is used as calibration context for later evaluations.

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Deeper reading

Indicators

IY, CRI, OR, EE, LAS, τ, RV, CVR — every numeric input.

Regime detection

Microstructure labels that drive idea filtering.

Risk gates

Pre-trade safety rails before every order.

Idea pipeline

How daily trade ideas get generated and surfaced.

Provenance

trace_id audit chain across 9 priority tables.

Heartbeat

Per-thesis and system-wide self-monitoring.

Snapshots

Daily R2 + HuggingFace data dumps.

SF Index methodology

How the prediction-market index is constructed.